{"id":4853,"date":"2021-09-30T23:38:30","date_gmt":"2021-09-30T17:38:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.isrt.ac.bd\/?post_type=tribe_events&p=4853"},"modified":"2021-10-18T11:00:15","modified_gmt":"2021-10-18T05:00:15","slug":"improved-statistical-approach-for-climate-projection-over-bangladesh-using-downscaling-of-global-climate-model-outputs","status":"publish","type":"tribe_events","link":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/event\/improved-statistical-approach-for-climate-projection-over-bangladesh-using-downscaling-of-global-climate-model-outputs\/","title":{"rendered":"Seminar on Improved Statistical Approach for Climate Projection over Bangladesh using Downscaling of Global Climate Model Outputs"},"content":{"rendered":"

Title:<\/strong> Improved Statistical Approach for Climate Projection over Bangladesh using Downscaling of Global Climate Model Outputs<\/p>\n

Speaker<\/strong>: Md. Bazlur Rashid<\/p>\n

Abstract<\/strong>:
\nBangladesh is facing from severe impacts of climate change because of its low-lying coastal
\nareas, deforestation, and rapid human population growth, technological and industrial
\nintervention. The climate change parameters namely, temperature, heavy rainfall, sea surface
\ntemperature, frequency of floods, cyclones and storm surges are showing significant changed at
\nevery year and it has a massive impact on food production which may turn into food uncertainty
\nby amplifying the environmental and socio-economic pressure. The impact of climate change on
\nenvironment is immeasurable and it has large threat in our country. Appropriate strategies based
\non the climate information research will reduce the vulnerability of livelihoods and
\ninfrastructures to future climate change and contributes to achieve sustainability in resources.
\nClimate change projection poses an unprecedented challenge for meteorology, climatology etc.
\nGlobal Climate Model (GCM) has evolved from the Atmospheric General Circulation Models
\n(AGCMs) broadly used for daily, seasonal and long term climate projection. The most widely
\ndocumented application is the projection of future climate conditions under several scenarios of
\nincreasing atmospheric components. Over the last few eras, GCMs have been developed to
\nmatch the present climate system and to project future climate scenarios. Despite outstanding
\nprogress, GCMs do not deliver seamless simulations of reality and cannot afford the specifics
\non very small spatial scales due to imperfect scientific understanding and limitations of
\navailable observations in our country. For connecting the gap between the scale of GCMs and
\ncrucial resolution for practical applications, downscaling provides climate change information
\nat a suitable spatial and temporal scale from the GCM data. No downscaling for Bangladesh of
\ndetail temperature and precipitation has been undertaken. Current research in Bangladesh has not
\naddressed seasonal based climate projections. Extreme events especially temperature and rainfall
\nalong with seasonality, under future climate in Bangladesh represent a further research gap and
\nopportunity for this research. The main object of study is to develop efficient statistical
\nmethods for climate projection. The specific objectives are (i) to identify suitable model with
\nbias corrections for assessing and understanding climate impacts on rainfall and temperature
\nusing climate model outputs; (ii) to explore the efficiency of the bias correction statistical
\ndownscaling method in addressing the model-related uncertainties involved in future climate
\npredictions; (iii) to classify a suitable downscaling approach for climate model data to allow
\nseasonal meteorological climate impact studies and (iv) to cross check between available
\nstatistical downscaling techniques for future climate projections and scenarios generation over
\nBangladesh.
\nTo achieve the objectives, this research connects the gap between large and local scale climate
\nvariables, a number of statistical downscaling methods are used. A stepwise multiple linear
\nregression method is used in study. One significant motivation behind the empirical statistical
\ndownscaling method applied in this research is to make use of the large scales that the models<\/p>\n

are able to reproduce realistically to say something about local changes. Altogether GCMs have
\na minimum skillful scale which means that their separate grid-box values are not a good diagram
\nof the area they represent in the actual world (because computers work with discrete numbers).
\nThe procedure of common EOF analysis makes it possible to identify common spatial patterns in
\nreanalysis and GCM data on a scale that is good represented by climate models.
\nThis study reveals that future CO 2 emissions are expected to have severe consequences for the
\nwinter season in Bangladesh in terms of significant warming in the whole country. All emission
\nscenarios show an increasing mean temperature in Bangladesh, but while RCP2.6 shows the
\ntemperature plateauing mid-century, the average increase is 2 times higher in the far future
\ncompared to the near future assuming RCP4.5, and 4 times higher assuming RCP8.5. Finally,
\nthis research demonstrates that while warming may be unavoidable, there are still opportunities
\nto limit the severity of climate change in the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Title: Improved Statistical Approach for Climate Projection over Bangladesh using Downscaling of Global Climate Model Outputs Speaker: Md. Bazlur Rashid Abstract: Bangladesh is facing from severe impacts of climate change … [ Read More ]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"nf_dc_page":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_tribe_events_status":"","_tribe_events_status_reason":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"tribe_events_cat":[15],"class_list":["post-4853","tribe_events","type-tribe_events","status-publish","hentry","tribe_events_cat-seminar","cat_seminar"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/4853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/tribe_events"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/4853\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4856,"href":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/4853\/revisions\/4856"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4853"},{"taxonomy":"tribe_events_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/isrt.ac.bd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events_cat?post=4853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}